Real Estate Information Archive

No parallels with U.S.

Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service  Published: Monday, January 05, 2009 Brett Gundlock/National PostSold signs on house in Toronto.

OTTAWA - The Canadian housing market is cooling but is not facing a U.S. style meltdown, builders here say.

"A few commentators have drawn a parallel between the Canadian housing situation and the extreme difficulties in the housing market in the United States," the Canadian Homebuilders say in a report Monday that dismisses such comparisons.

"There is absolutely no merit in drawing such a parallel," it said in a report that contends the pace of housing construction in Canada is merely returning to a level that is consistent with underlying housing requirements following the boom of recent years.

"The housing situation in Canada is totally different from that of the U.S.," it said. "There will be some price moderation in some markets, but there is nothing to suggest that housing markets in Canada are vulnerable to the oversupplies and plunging prices that characterize many markets in the U.S.

"We did not experience the same housing boom conditions that occurred in the U.S., and there is no reason to expect that we are in for the serious pain they are currently suffering," it said.

The moderation of house prices will improve affordability and create opportunities for first-time home Buyers, it said. Meanwhile, existing homeowners have little to fear.

"For those Selling a home and buying another, the moderation of housing prices should be relative - there should be no significant gain or loss from the easing of house prices," it said.

"For those who have owned a home for some period, their equity will be substantial, given the rising prices of the past few years," it said. "For those who purchased their home recently, there should be few worries about a modest temporary reduction in value."

To support its argument that the Canadian housing market is not going the way of the U.S. market, it cited a variety of differences:

• Unlike in the U.S., underwriting standards for qualifying Mortgage borrowers in Canada have been maintained at prudent levels resulting in mortgage borrowers here being much more creditworthy;

• Canadian Mortgage lenders never offered low initial ‘teaser' rate mortgages that led to most of the difficulties for mortgage borrowers in the U.S.;

• Most mortgages in Canada are held by their original lender, not packaged and sold to third parties as is typical in the U.S., and consequently, Canadian Mortgage lenders have a vested Interest in ensuring that their mortgage borrowers are creditworthy and not likely to default;

• Only 0.3% of Canadian mortgages are in arrears versus 4.5% in the U.S. and what even before the start of the U.S. housing meltdown two years ago was 2%;

• Canadians tend to pay down their Mortgage faster than in the U.S. where mortgage Interest is deductible from taxes, which encourages U.S. homeowners to take equity out of their homes to finance other spending, a difference that is reflected in the fact that in Canada mortgage debt accounts for just over 30% of the value of homes, compared with 55% in the U.S.

In Canada, home prices are down 9.8% from a year earlier, compared with an 18% drop in the U.S. from what were already deeply depressed prices a year ago, the latest real estate industry figures show.

Most analysts here agree that Canada should avoid a U.S. style housing market meltdown.

Michael Gregory, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said recently that "we won't even come close" to what is happening in the U.S. thanks to stronger employment and income growth here as well as banking system that "continues to make mortgages" available to Canadian consumers.

But he cautioned that if unemployment rises in Canada, there will be a larger fallout for the domestic housing market.

"Anyway you slice it, if you don't have a job, you can't get a Mortgage and you can't buy a house," Mr. Gregory said.

THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA – Text of Tuesday's announcement from the Bank of Canada as it cut its target for the overnight rate by three-quarters of a point to 1.5 per cent:

The outlook for the world economy has deteriorated significantly and the global recession will be broader and deeper than previously anticipated. Global financial markets remain severely strained. Measures taken by major governments are beginning to encourage credit flows, although it will take some time before conditions in financial markets normalize. In addition, a series of recently announced monetary and fiscal policy actions will also support global economic growth.

While Canada's economy evolved largely as expected during the summer and early autumn, it is now entering a recession as a result of the weakness in global economic activity. The recent declines in terms of trade, real income growth, and confidence are prompting more cautious behaviour by households and businesses.

All of these factors imply a lower profile for core inflation than had been projected at the time of the last Monetary Policy Report in October.

Several factors are helping to counterbalance the negative drag from the global economic and financial developments. The depreciation of the Canadian dollar will continue to provide an important offset to the effects of weaker global demand and lower commodity prices. As well, money markets and overall credit conditions in Canada are responding to significant and ongoing efforts to provide liquidity to the Canadian financial system.

In light of the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy Interest rate by a total of 75 basis points in October and by an additional 75 basis points today. These monetary policy actions provide timely and significant support to the Canadian economy.

The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in judging to what extent further monetary stimulus will be required to achieve the two per cent inflation target over the medium term.

Dec 06, 2008, The Toronto Star

By Michael Moldenhauer

Warning: the following article contains positive information from an independent third party.

I hate to be the bearer of good news, but there's actually some out there, although you'd never know it most days. For example, the "Real Estate Trends" report recently released by the Scotiabank Group was remarkably positive once you got past the first line.

The opening line of the Global Economic Research report by Adrienne Warren of Scotia Economics bluntly declared that "Canada's longest housing boom of the postwar period has come to an end."

We all know that, but the balance of the report put that opening statement into some healthy perspective, something that has been sorely lacking in most recent media reports on the state of the housing market.

"We argue against taking an overly alarmist view to domestic housing prospects," says Warren. "This is not a U.S.-style bust caused by overbuilding, speculative buying and imprudent lending, but rather a cyclical slowdown accompanied by a valuation adjustment in several large centres (out West) where booming demand conditions and temporary supply constraints led to an overshooting in prices."

Driving home the U.S. comparison, Warren writes that "Canada's Mortgage market is significantly different than its U.S. counterpart, with a much smaller subprime exposure, less Interest rate reset risk, lower use of home equity withdrawal and investor mortgages and more conservative lending criteria.

"Canadian households are far less leveraged than those in the United States, and less exposed to any erosion in underlying asset values," Warren continues.

"Record unsold housing inventories, mounting foreclosures, overbuilding and credit constraints are bigger factors behind the continuing and steep slide in U.S. home prices than overvaluation, none of which are major concerns in Canada."

She goes on to note that apart from Mortgage and balance sheet considerations, there are other key differences between the U.S. and Canada including the fact that the inventory of for-sale homes on both the new and resale market, while moving up, is still well-contained relative to prior cycles.

"With builders in most jurisdictions beginning to slow the pace of new construction, and with a low risk of widespread foreclosures, the Canadian market does not face the massive inventory glut underlying record-setting U.S. price declines."

Warren tracked real estate price increases over 10 years in 10 different countries to find that home price appreciation in the U.S. and Canada has actually been "relatively modest" by international standards, rising 50 per cent and 61 per cent respectively.

Based on the International Monetary Fund's housing valuation model, which estimates the extent to which house price increases are unexplained by fundamentals, Canada's housing market is the "least overvalued."

Warren does see a down side risk to home prices in Canada, but sees it out West more than here in the GTA.

"We expect that the correction in national average prices from their late 2007 peak will probably be in the range of 10-15 per cent, well below the ongoing U.S. retrenchment.

"Much of this realignment will occur in Canada's three Western provinces, and will leave intact most of the significant price appreciation of recent years."

I would like to repeat the line above – "leave intact most of the significant price appreciation of recent years" – because it speaks to the reason that it's always a good time to buy if you are buying for the right reasons, namely shelter and long-term financial security.

TORONTO, December 04, 2008 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® recorded 3,640 transactions last month, from 7,313 sales in November 2007, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

Year-to-date sales figures for the Greater Toronto Area show 72,086 transactions in 2008, from 88,695 sales recorded in the same January to November period a year ago. By contrast, the 2008 year-to-date average price in the GTA is $379,489, from $375,445 in 2007.

“Its important for the public to understand that while sales activity has moderated in 2008, due to current economic conditions, the average price of homes has increased from 2006 still making real estate a solid long term investment,” said O’Neill.

In the 416 area, 1,523 transactions took place last month, from 3,426 sales recorded in November 2007. From a year-to-date perspective, there have been 28,806 sales in the 416 area this year, from 36,804 transactions a year ago.

In the 905 Region 2,117 homes changed hands last month, from November 2007’s 3,887 sales. The 905 Region’s year-to-date figures show 43,280 transactions this year, from 51,891 sales recorded during the same period in 2007.

“Homeownership in the Greater Toronto Area continues to be an affordable, stable and secure investment,” said Ms. O’Neill. “Home Buyers and sellers should be confident about their bricks and mortar investment which provides shelter and a place to raise a family.”

“Home prices are affordable, Interest rates are at historical low levels and the supply of homes for sale is good providing additional reasons for Buyers thinking of entering the market,” added O’Neill.

The average price of a home in the GTA last month was $368,582, from $393,747 noted in November 2007. In November 2006 the average price was recorded at $355,727.

In the 416 area, last month’s average price was $390,225, from $433,859 noted in November 2007. The average price recorded in November 2006 was $381,188. From a year-to-date perspective the 2008 average price in the 416 area is $411,155, from last year’s $411,640.

In the 905 Region, the average price recorded last month was $353,012, from $358,391 recorded in November of 2007. In November 2006 the average price was $335,522. The year-to-date average price in the 905 Region this year is $359,245, from $349,774 in 2007.

The average number of days a home currently remains on the market in the GTA is 41, from an average of 32 days last November. There are currently 27,037 homes listed on the TorontoMLS system compared to 18,309 available Properties in November 2007.

“While homeownership offers immediate benefits and long term value by way of equity, it also provides tax benefits over time,” said Ms. O’Neill. “If you bought a house five years ago, it would be worth more than 20 per cent more today.”

“As REALTORS®, we help build communities and will continue to do so even during challenging economic times,” added Ms. O’Neill. “It’s important to consult with a REALTOR® to get accurate local market information.”

Read the Complete Market Watch Report

Recovery linked to economic stability next year

Global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on residential real estate activity in most major Canadian centres during the latter half of 2008.  Although the forecast for 2009 promises more of the same, most markets are expected to weather the storm, says RE/MAX. 

 Housing market performance will clearly be contingent on economic performance at a local, provincial, and national level in 2009.  Issues affecting the overall economy are impacting housing markets across the country and the situation is not expected to be remedied until consumer confidence is restored.   If inventory levels remain stable, pent-up demand kicks into gear, and lower Interest rates stimulate home-buying activity, we could see a bounce back as early as spring.

 The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook for 2009 examined residential real estate trends in 22 markets across the country and found that average price held up remarkably well in 2008, despite 13 centres reporting double-digit declines in home sales. Solid gains earlier in the year likely served to prop-up housing values at year-end.  The prognosis for housing activity in the first six to nine months of 2009 is somewhat static, given continued volatility in financial markets and the threat of recession, but as stability returns, housing markets are expected to recover. 

 Nationally, 440,000 homes are expected to change hands in 2008, down 15 per cent from record 2007 levels. Canadian housing values are expected to hover at $300,000, a nominal three per cent decline from last year’s historic peak.  By year-end 2009, unit sales should match 2008 levels, while average price is forecast to fall another two per cent to $293,000.

 Major markets are evenly split in terms of housing performance in 2009, with 11 centres forecast to match or exceed 2008 home sales and 11 expected to slide from 2008 levels.  The highest percentage increase in unit sales is anticipated in Saskatoon, where the number of homes sold is forecast to climb three per cent in 2009.  Housing values are expected to hold the line in 2009, with St. John’s, Montreal, Kingston, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Regina posting modest gains in average price in 2009. 

Canada’s real estate environment is considerably more complex than it has been in recent years.  The landscape is definitely changing -- with most markets shifting into either balanced or buyer’s territory. The shut out is over.  Sellers no longer rule the roost.  Opportunities exist for purchasers like never before, including lower Interest rates, greater inventory levels, the luxury of time to make decisions, and the upper-hand at the negotiating table.  Motivated vendors will need to take note of the new mindset and set their prices accordingly.

 Canadian sellers are slowly adjusting to new realities. For most markets, 2008 started in balanced territory and moved into buyer’s market conditions during the latter half of 2008.  The year ahead will prove challenging, especially for vendors.

While the economy will dictate real estate performance next year, it’s important to remember that demand still exists in the marketplace.  In the midst of stock market turmoil, sold signs continue to appear on lawns across the country.  With affordable lending rates and increased selection, first-time and move-up Buyers with good credit may choose to play their investment strategy safe and purchase a home. The comfort of a tangible investment like real estate goes a long way in tough times.

TORONTO, November 5, 2008 -- The Greater Toronto Area resale housing market reported 5,155 sales in October, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

This represents a 35 per cent decline from the 7,915 sales reported in October 2007 and a 25 per cent decrease from the 6,876 transactions that took place during the same period two years ago.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,136 sales, with sales activity down 38 per cent from the 3,455 transactions recorded last October.

In the 905 Region 3,019 sales were recorded, with sales activity down 32 per cent from a year ago when 4,460 homes changed hands.

With 68,570 transactions to date this year, sales are within 16 per cent of the 81,563 transactions noted a year ago. The 2007 market referred to was a record breaking year with each month breaking records for the entire year. Putting into perspective 2008 figures are indicative of a return to a more balanced market.

In the City of Toronto 27,324 sales year-to-date are within 18 per cent of the 33,441 transactions recorded last year at this time.

In the 905 Region the 41,246 sales to date are within 14 per cent of the 48,122 homes that changed hands up to this point a year ago.

In the City of Toronto, the current average price of a home is $376,896, down 13 per cent from last October’s average of $434,022 and within three per cent of the October 2006 average of $386,807.

In the 905 Region homes are Selling for an average price of $336,049, a decline of eight per cent from October 2007’s average of $364,142. Prices in this area however, remain one per cent higher than the October 2006 average of $332,822.

“Earlier this year the International Monetary Fund undertook a study of housing markets in 17 countries and found that Canada was one of only two nations in which house prices are supported by the economy,” said Ms. O’Neill. “There’s no doubt that real estate will continue to be a solid long-term investment in our country.”

Read Complete report on Market Watch

October 17, 2008 -- Activity in the Greater Toronto Area resale housing market moderated considerably during the first half of October with 2,700 homes changing hands, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

Sales volumes in the GTA decreased 18 per cent compared to the first half of October 2007, when 3,297 transactions were recorded and are down 10 per cent compared to the same period in 2006 when 3,007 sales took place.

In the City of Toronto 1,140 sales took place in the first half of this month. This represents a 21per cent decline from the 1,446 sales that took place in the same period a year ago and a 13 per cent decrease from the 1,312 transactions recorded in the first half of October 2006.

In the 905 Region there were 1,560 sales in the first two weeks of this month, a 16 per cent decrease from the 1,851 transactions that took place during the same timeframe in 2007 and down eight per cent from the 1,695 homes sold during the first half of October 2006.

House prices declined throughout the GTA during the first half of the month. The average priceof a GTA home is currently $353,772, down 11 per cent from $399,013 recorded the comparable period in 2007.

In the City of Toronto the current average price $375,804, a 15 per cent decrease from the $441,878 average recorded at mid-October 2007.

In the 905 Region the average price of a home is currently $337,671. This represents an eight per cent decline from the $365,527 average recorded during the first half of October 2007.

With 27,559 currently listed on the TorontoMLS system, there is now 30 per cent more available stock from which to choose as compared to a year ago when 21,182 homes were listed.

“More choice can mean slightly longer wait times for sellers whose homes are now on average, Selling after 34 days on the market as compared to 29 days a year ago,” said Ms. O’Neill. “The list to sales ratio is 97 per cent of the list price.”

Increased sales activity was noted in specific pockets located throughout the GTA.

Sales in Oshawa (E16) increased 15 per cent compared to the first half of October 2007, based mainly on solid sales of detached homes.

In Brampton West (W24) sales in the first half of October increased 21 per cent compared to the same period a year ago mainly due to strong attached row house sales.

Downtown East (C08) experienced a 16 per cent overall increase in activity compared to mid-October 2007 primarily as a result of condominium apartment sales.

Newmarket saw a 17 per cent increase in sales compared to the first half of October 2007 as a result of strong condominium apartment and semi-detached home sales.

Previous news releases have incorporated 2006 comparisons. This was necessary in order to place the market statistics in a broader context. We will be referencing 2006 in its entirety at the end of the month when it will be more relevant.

“While we continue to watch the economic picture globally, it is the local real estate climate that will determine our market place,” said Ms. O’Neill. “After the 2007 record highs, 2008 is an encouraging market for Buyers.”

October 3, 2008 -- The Greater Toronto Area resale housing market continued at a measured pace through September, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

With 6,424 homes changing hands last month, activity in the GTA declined six per cent compared to the 6,866 sales that took place in September 2007 and declined three per cent compared to the 6,622 transactions that were recorded two years ago.

In the City of Toronto sales were less robust. The 2,546 transactions recorded last month declined 11 per cent from the 2,854 sales in September 2007 and declined five per cent from the 2,680 sales recorded in September 2006. Sales increased six per cent between September 2006 and September 2007.

“We remain concerned about the Land Transfer Tax in the City of Toronto,” said Ms. O’Neill.

In the 905 Region, the 3,878 sales recorded last month were within three per cent of September 2007’s 4,012 transactions, and within two per cent of September 2006’s 3,942 sales. Sales in this region increased two per cent between September 2006 and September 2007.

From a year-to-date perspective, the GTA resale housing market has declined 14 per cent from the 73,827 transactions recorded a year ago. To date, there have been 63,595 sales through the TorontoMLS system this year. In the City of Toronto year-to-date sales have declined 16 per cent from last year’s figure of 30,059 to 25,257 transactions this year. In the 905 Region year-todate sales have declined 12 per cent. So far this year there have been 38,338 sales in the 905

Region compared to 43,768 last year. Prices throughout the GTA however, have remained fairly stable. At $368,549, the average price of a GTA home in September has declined three per cent from $380,132 recorded a year ago.

In the City of Toronto, the current average price of $393,647 declined six per cent from the September 2007 average of $420,182. Compared to the September 2006 average of $371,682 though, prices in Toronto for September 2008 have increased six per cent.

In the 905 Region, the average price of $352,071, increased marginally from the $351,641 recorded in September 2007, and was up five per cent from 2006 September average of $333,818.

“Although the market is not as robust as it was a year ago, homeowners are continuing to see strong returns on their investment,” said Ms. O’Neill. “On average, Sellers are achieving 97 per cent of their asking price.

With the average number of days on market increasing to 36 days from to 31 days a year ago, it is taking slightly longer for homeowners to achieve a sale.

“Even with respect to sales activity, each month we continue to see a handful of neighbourhoods reporting increases compared to a year ago.”

In Scarborough East (E08) transactions increased 22 per cent compared to September 2007 based on strong sales of all housing types.

Streetsville (W19) saw an 11 per cent sales increase due primarily to strong detached home sales.

In Newmarket (N07) transactions increased 11 per cent compared to a year ago, driven mainly by strong condominium townhouse sales.

“Given that these are trying times for the world economy, in context, the Greater Toronto Area resale housing market continues to fare quite well,” said Ms. O’Neill. “From a long-term perspective, buying a home remains a sound financial decision.”

Read the Complete Market Watch Report

CMHC Financial assistance takes the form of loans, forgivable loans or non-repayable contributions, and can be used to fund repairs, renovations, accessibility modifications, the creation of low-income rental units, and home adaptations. Programs are available for low-income households, seniors, and persons with disabilities.

For more details, check CMHC website at

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/prfinas/index.cfm

September 17, 2008 -- The Greater Toronto Area’s autumn resale housing market began with moderate activity, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

With 2,726 sales during the first half of this month, activity has declined 16 per cent from the 3,236 recorded during same time period a year ago. Compared to the 2,913 transactions recorded during the first half of September 2006, activity has declined six per cent.

In the City of Toronto, 998 sales were recorded, which represents a 23 per cent decline from the 1,297 transactions recorded in the first half of September 2007 and an 11 per cent decline from the 1,118 homes that changed hands in 2006. However, activity increased 16 per cent in the first half of September 2007 from the same period in 2006.

In the 905 Region, there were 1,728 sales, down 11 per cent from the first half of September 2007, when 1,939 transactions were recorded and within four per cent of the 1,795 sales recorded during the same timeframe in 2006. However, activity increased eight per cent during the first two weeks of September 2007 as compared to 2006.

“Although housing activity in the GTA remains moderate, we’re continuing to see a consistent pattern, and this stability is certainly positive news compared to markets in other sectors and in other world cities,” said Ms. O’Neill.

At $366,158 the average price of housing in the GTA has increased marginally from the $364,364 recorded a year ago and is up nine per cent from $335,208 recorded in September 2006.

In the City of Toronto, the average price is $386,524 up marginally from the $384,796 recorded in the first half of September 2007 and up 12 per cent from the $343,561 average from the same period in 2006.

In the 905 Region, the average price is $354,395; an increase of one per cent from $350,698 recorded a year ago and up seven per cent from $330,005 recorded in the first half of September 2006.

“The fact that prices have held firm despite moderate activity shows that consumers regard real estate as a sound investment,” said Ms. O’Neill.

The percentage of asking price that Sellers receive for their homes has also remained consistent. The list to sale price ratio is 98 per cent, as it was a year ago.

The 26,299 listed for sale on the TorontoMLS system have increased 26 per cent from a year ago when 20,841 homes were available. The time that homes remain on the market has increased as well, to an average of 37 days compared to 31 days a year ago.

In a few areas though, activity heated up during the first two weeks of the month.

Transactions in Bowmanville (E17) increased 66 per cent from a year ago, as a result of strong detached home sales.

In Streetsville (W20) activity increased seven per cent compared to mid-September 2007 due mainly to semi-detached sales.

Vaughan (N02) saw a 20 per cent increased in transactions from a year ago due to strong sales of all housing types.